Friday, May 5, 2017

The Future of Gerrymandering: 2020

The wildly successful Republican partisan gerrymander (REDMAP) of 2010 will last three more years, after which time there will be a political brawl for control of redistricting. REDMAP cost about $30 million in campaign contributions (to ensure that Republicans controlled state legislatures and were therefore in charge of redistricting), but now the strategy's effectiveness is well known.

Both parties have started multiple super PACs to raise money for 2020 redistricting. This time, it is likely that over $100 million will be spent on 2020 state legislative campaigns.

One of the super PACs involved (the National Democratic Redistricting Committee) is part of President Obama's commitment to focusing on redistricting. Hopefully this PAC will work for redistricting reform, not just a shift in party control.

Most likely, 2020 will be a year of intense competition to control highly partisan gerrymandering. If our democracy is lucky, however, major reforms will start before that happens.

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